Corporate Logo(source: koreanair.com)
On September 22, Hana Securities said that Korean Air (003490) is likely to deliver solid earnings in the fourth quarter, supported by the Chuseok holiday and the impact of visa-free group travel from Chinese tourists. The brokerage maintained its “buy” rating and target price of 30,000 won.
According to estimates by Hana Securities, Korean Air’s standalone third-quarter revenue came to 4.219 trillion won, down 1% year-on-year, while operating profit fell 28% to 445 billion won. The decline was attributed to weakening demand for travel to Japan and Southeast Asia during the quarter and a 7% drop in average international airfares this year.
Cargo revenue was also projected to decline by 4%, as volumes weakened following the end of the U.S. de minimis duty exemption for low-value imports, which has reduced e-commerce shipments. Analysts noted that the downturn in cargo volumes is likely to persist for the time being.
Subsidiary performance is also expected to remain subdued. Asiana Airlines has already divested its cargo business unit, while low-cost carriers (LCCs) face weaker demand for travel to Japan and Southeast Asia, limiting any potential seasonal benefits.
However, Hana Securities expects a turnaround in the fourth quarter. Analyst Do-hyun An explained, “As long as the visa-free policy between Korea and China remains in place, it is not unreasonable to expect Chinese route revenues to exceed pre-COVID-19 levels.” He projected international passenger revenue to grow 14% year-on-year in the fourth quarter.
That said, cargo revenue is still forecast to fall due to the U.S. duty exemption repeal. On a standalone basis, fourth-quarter revenue is estimated at 4.3 trillion won, up 6% year-on-year, with operating profit at 419 billion won, down 4%.
An added, “For integrated Korean Air, investors should focus more on standalone earnings than consolidated results for now. The key is how many routes the airline can secure where additional competition is limited. Korean Air holds a dominant position not only on North American and European routes but also on China routes, where the visa-free program could further highlight its competitive edge.”
*[KOSPI] Korean Air Lines(003490) is the No. 1 airline in Korea with a fleet total of 170 aircraft, including 137 passenger planes and 33 cargo planes(as of March 2024). The market capitalization is 8.515 trillion won (as of September 19, 2025, closing price).
Corporate Logo(source: koreanair.com)
On September 22, Hana Securities said that Korean Air (003490) is likely to deliver solid earnings in the fourth quarter, supported by the Chuseok holiday and the impact of visa-free group travel from Chinese tourists. The brokerage maintained its “buy” rating and target price of 30,000 won.
According to estimates by Hana Securities, Korean Air’s standalone third-quarter revenue came to 4.219 trillion won, down 1% year-on-year, while operating profit fell 28% to 445 billion won. The decline was attributed to weakening demand for travel to Japan and Southeast Asia during the quarter and a 7% drop in average international airfares this year.
Cargo revenue was also projected to decline by 4%, as volumes weakened following the end of the U.S. de minimis duty exemption for low-value imports, which has reduced e-commerce shipments. Analysts noted that the downturn in cargo volumes is likely to persist for the time being.
Subsidiary performance is also expected to remain subdued. Asiana Airlines has already divested its cargo business unit, while low-cost carriers (LCCs) face weaker demand for travel to Japan and Southeast Asia, limiting any potential seasonal benefits.
However, Hana Securities expects a turnaround in the fourth quarter. Analyst Do-hyun An explained, “As long as the visa-free policy between Korea and China remains in place, it is not unreasonable to expect Chinese route revenues to exceed pre-COVID-19 levels.” He projected international passenger revenue to grow 14% year-on-year in the fourth quarter.
That said, cargo revenue is still forecast to fall due to the U.S. duty exemption repeal. On a standalone basis, fourth-quarter revenue is estimated at 4.3 trillion won, up 6% year-on-year, with operating profit at 419 billion won, down 4%.
An added, “For integrated Korean Air, investors should focus more on standalone earnings than consolidated results for now. The key is how many routes the airline can secure where additional competition is limited. Korean Air holds a dominant position not only on North American and European routes but also on China routes, where the visa-free program could further highlight its competitive edge.”
*[KOSPI] Korean Air Lines(003490) is the No. 1 airline in Korea with a fleet total of 170 aircraft, including 137 passenger planes and 33 cargo planes(as of March 2024). The market capitalization is 8.515 trillion won (as of September 19, 2025, closing price).